Eleanor Clift in Newsweek opines that Condi's 'mildly pro-choice' stance has already doomed her '08 candidacy, while also affirming that we should take Condi's 'no, I won't run' with thousands of grains of salt. I'm downgrading Condi's odds, but only a little. While it is true that any 'pro-choice' leanings at all will cost Condi hundreds of thousands of votes, that loss will be mitigated by more favorable press coverage, some converts among 'on-the-fence' moderates and libertarians, and the prospect of facing the far worse, in all likelihood, Democratic alternative.
Of couse, there's also the 'superstar' factor. Condi's socially moderate positions will be excused by many on the grounds of the undeniable excitement she generates, much as Arnold's are (just look at the press she's getting since being named Secretary of State). Yet good press and adolation from the masses can be fleeting (just ask Colin Powell, who's getting a downgrade as well).
CURRENT ODDS (Condi): 14-1
CURRENT ODDS (Powell): 33-1