I'll say something right up front - I really, truly don't care for this man. His arrogance is legendary; he chases rich widows; and his 'nuanced' positions are rightly famous. Apparently, a lot of people agreed with me; his voters didn't so much vote for Kerry as they did against Bush. Bush won't be running again, though (will his brother Jeb? Stay tuned...), so one wonders what could possibly convince Kerry supporters that he could win in 2008. Still, he's apparently considering it, so we'll add him to the list.
If there's an 'unofficial' Kerry 2008 site, I didn't find it (not a good sign in itself).
John Forbes Kerry - link to more than you ever wanted to know about 'JFK'
Resume: Former Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts; long-time junior Senator from Massachussetts; Democratic Presidential Candidate 2004
Hard to think of many pros, but there are tons of cons to another Kerry presidential bid. He turns off vast amounts of the electorate and he lost by a pretty good margin to a president many saw as vulnerable. Here are some other reasons I think he won't get a second chance.
1. The Hillary Factor - Hillary Clinton is possibly the only person who can inspire more simultaneous hatred and adoration than George W. Bush. A hero to many on the left, she is equally despised on the right. If she is nominated, it will prove to me that the Democrats have not learned any lessons from 2004; still, the Clintonistas remain strong.
2. Vietnam - James Taranto at Best of the Web had a hilarious habit of referring to Kerry as the haughty, French-looking Massachusetts Democrat, who by the way served in Vietnam. Vietnam is the perfect window into Kerry's flip-flopping persona. He wants to be recognized as a hero for serving (heroically - I'm not one of those who knocks his war record) in a war that he claimed was morally reprehensible. Kerry never understood that his opposition to the Vietnam War was not the problem, it was his over-the-top testimony about 'war crimes' culled from the bogus Winter Soldier Investigation. If Kerry's candidacy proved one thing, it is that Americans are sick of Vietnam.
3. The Opportunist Perception - Kerry just doesn't seem to stand for anything other than his conviction of his own superiority. The pattern seems to be: ride Vietnam opposition to a political career, marry a rich widow, and then hang out being a rich Senator.
Add it all up, and I don't see a serious bid in the cards.
(hat tips to BushBlog 2004, Free Republic, and Nurse Ratched)
CURRENT ODDS: 18-1
UPDATE 01/03/05 6:49 pm central: An article that appeared in Newsweek seems to indicate Kerry is seriously considering a run. I take issue with its assertion that Kerry is one of the favorites (with Hillary), and the contention that people aren't blaming Kerry (I've seen plenty of 'Progressives' who thought they had a dog candidate). More importantly, I don't see anything that changes the dynamics of my original post. I have bumped him only slightly.
CURRENT ODDS: 15-1
UPDATE 01/12/05 2:08 pm central: Yet another sign of Kerry's inclination to run again is the launching of JohnKerry.com (hat tip to Citizen Frank)...
CURRENT ODDS: 13-1
UPDATE 02/06/05 11:51 pm central: Yep, he's gonna try to run again - and I like his odds less than ever. After his embarrasing pessimism in the aftermath of the Iraqi elections, I'm knocking him down a bit.
CURRENT ODDS: 16-1
UPDATE 03/10/05 9:15 pm central: See this post for latest downward revision.
CURRENT ODDS: 19-1
UPDATE 04/25/05 6:58 pm central: See here...
CURRENT ODDS: 22-1
UPDATE 06/12/05 5:30 p.m central: Be sure to check the comments to this post to learn of some unofficial Kerry 2008 sites that have gone up since I originally posted this. Also, in light of Kerry's continued buffoonery re: the Form SF-180 (can Kerry be upfront about ANYTHING?), I'm docking him again.
CURRENT ODDS: 26-1
UPDATE 07/04/05 10:28 p.m. central: Kerry gets the slightest of bumps more from inertia than anything tangible...
CURRENT ODDS: 25-1