Rethinking the Democrats

Okay, I didn't get to a candidate profile this weekend...I think the next one will be John Edwards. I have, however, put some thought into my odds for the Democratic nomination, and I think I'm leaving too much on the table. Granted, there are some holes to fill in my candidate profiles, but as it stands right now, Hillary is looking more and more unstoppable just by virtue of her lack of serious competition. Of the current crop of candidates, I would say only Warner or Bayh has a decent chance of toppling her. Of course, we're a long way from the party yet...but I'm resetting my current Democratic candidates as follows (remember, this is to win the nomination, not the election):

• Hillary Clinton - Current Odds: 4-1
• Al Gore - Current Odds: 30 -1
• John Kerry - Current Odds: 25-1
• Joe Lieberman - Current Odds: 50-1
• Barack Obama - Current Odds: 30-1
• Harry Reid - Current Odds: 50-1
• Evan Bayh - Current Odds: 12-1
• Joe Biden - Current Odds: 18-1
• Bill Richardson - Current Odds: 25-1
• Mark Warner - Current Odds: 10-1

Sure, I'm missing Feingold, Edwards, Boxer, and some others...but even with these adjustments, the ten Democrats I've already profiled only account for about two-thirds of the 100% the odds should add to, so I've still got a lot of room to play with...the biggest mover, probably, is Biden...surprisingly, people are taking his candidacy fairly seriously. I still don't think he's a player, but I'm bowing somewhat to the conventional wisdom.