From time to time, I plan to revisit my odds to keep them fresh and as up-to-date as possible. Not too long ago, I did the Democrats, and now it's the Republicans' turn. Without further ado, then, here are my latest odds on the Repubican nomination:
Dick Cheney: 40-1
Arnold Schwarzenegger: 200-1
Colin Powell: 50-1
Mark Sanford: 16-1
Condoleezza Rice: 13-1
Newt Gingrich: 125-1
Rudy Giuliani: 7-1
John McCain: 9-1
Jeb Bush: 25-1
Mike Huckabee: 13-1
George Allen: 14-1
Rick Santorum: 33-1
Mitt Romney: 15-1
That still leaves about 27-28% of 100% odds to play with as I add new candidate profiles - noticably missing, still, are Bill Frist and Brownback, among others. The main changes are I moved most everyone up a little, with the exception of Ahh-nold, who, it's increasingly becoming apparent, wouldn't have the time to push for a Constitutional Amendment even if he wanted to run. Colin Powell also dropped considerably, and Jeb Bush, a little.
As you can see, I think it's McCain vs. Rudy G. at this point, with about 4 or 5 dark horses still in contention. Also notable are my relatively long odds on George Allen; I'm not convinced at all yet that he has the goods, although I certainly don't rule him out.
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