Candidate Profile Fourteen: Rudy Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani, like George W. Bush, is a person shaped by destiny. I believe there is a reason, if not for all things, then for most of them, and there was a reason Bush and Rudy were in power on that awful September day. Outside of a nuclear attack or some other massive WMD outbreak, it's hard to imagine anything worse that could happen to a mayor's beloved city. Rudy G. was up to the task, winning the praise of even longtime political foes. It would behoove his rivals to take his potential 2008 candidacy quite seriously.

Rudolph William Louis Giuliani III - official bio from his days as NYC mayor

Good unofficial Rudy 2008 blog

Resume - long history with the Justice Department, eventually rising to the rank of Associate Attorney General; 107th mayor of New York City; chairman and CEO of Giuliani Partners; Knight of the British Empire; Time Magazine's 2001 Person of the Year

We'll start out with the cons, since they're well known and widely remarked upon:

• Rudy is pro-choice, not a plus during the primaries, to say the least;
• he's been very vocal in his support of gay rights, to the point of being an advocate of civil unions, not a popular stance with the religious right (just ask the current President), though he stops short of endorsing gay marriage;
• some have said his candidacy was harmed by the Bernard Kerik affair; and
  
• he was involved in a messy divorce that was partially responsible for his leaving the 2000 Senate race.

The pros are more intangible, but they are considerable. Giuliani will no doubt receive a lot of help from his ties to the financial community, New York heavy hitters, and Republican donors who recall his substantial contributions to George W. Bush's 2004 campaign, including a very effective convention speech. He will also have the support of many who, like myself, view September 11, 2001, as the prism through which modern foreign policy must be viewed.

Ultimately, the success of Giuliani's bid will hinge on three factors:

1. Most obviously, can his candidacy survive the primaries, given his moderation on social issues?
2. Will there be a weariness with 'the War on Terror' by the time 2008 rolls around?
3. If Hillary runs, as expected, is 'former NYC mayor' a good answer to 'Senator from NY', or will the voters prefer a southern touch?
   

For the moment, Giuliani is one of the favorites. Rudy better watch out, though...Condi or one of the southern governors may race ahead quickly, particularly if the negatives start to stick.

CURRENT ODDS: 10-1

UPDATE 07/24/2005 10:56 p.m.:

CURRENT ODDS: 7-1: see here...