Wednesday, July 20, 2005

Calculating the Odds

W. C. Varones has a pair of posts summarizing the odds at TradeSports for the Democratic and Republican 2008 nominations, calculated at the midpoint of the bid / ask spread. He also notes a way to make free money (read his post for more). Here are the top five from each list (W.C has the complete rundowns):


Hillary Clinton1.1 : 1
Mark Warner8.1 : 1
Joe Biden8.2 : 1
John Edwards15.5 : 1
Al Gore15.8 : 1


George Allen4.1 : 1
John McCain4.4 : 1
Bill Frist7.2 : 1
Rudy Giuliani7.2 : 1
Mitt Romney10.4 : 1

I think the traders are overenthusiastic for Frist on the Republican side, and Gore on the about you?...

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